Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3686 · DFW → AMA
departs 10:43 PM CT · arrives 12:47 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
AMA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.