Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3686 · DFW → AMA
departs 10:39 PM CT · arrives 11:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,533 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.89 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.