Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3782 · DFW → MHK
departs 9:41 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHK
↓
MHK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MHK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.