Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3782 · DFW → MHK
departs 9:29 PM CT · arrives 11:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHK
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MHK usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,533 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip none
MHK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.