Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3853 · DCA → BUF
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.