Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3895
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3895 · EYW → MIA
departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 6:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from EYW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.