Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 3912 · MBJ → MIA
departs 1:43 PM EST · arrives 4:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 38%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.