Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3975
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3975 · DCA → SYR
departs 10:32 PM ET · arrives 11:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
SYR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.