Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4013
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4013 · AVL → ORD
departs 9:25 AM ET · arrives 10:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
9am departures from AVL are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.