Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4014 · PHX → MRY
departs 1:36 PM MT · arrives 3:28 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 42%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MRY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MRY?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
MRY is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MRY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.