Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4014 · PHX → MRY
departs 1:33 PM MT · arrives 3:28 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MRY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MRY?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
MRY is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
MRY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.