Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4021 · PHX → CRQ
departs 5:00 PM MT · arrives 10:17 PM -03
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CRQ?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
CRQ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CRQ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.