Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4021 · PHX → CRQ
departs 4:58 PM MT · arrives 10:18 PM -03
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at CRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CRQ?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
CRQ usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into CRQ at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.82 in
CRQ (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.