Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4023 · SDF → DCA
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 7:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DCA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.