Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4047 · BOS → DCA
departs 9:15 PM ET · arrives 10:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.