Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4071
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4071 · MIA → SRQ
departs 10:54 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.