Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4085
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4085 · CMH → MIA
departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 9:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from CMH are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.