Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4138
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4138 · DCA → ILM
departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DCA that day
↓
ILM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ILM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.