Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4180
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4180 · RDU → DCA
departs 10:27 AM ET · arrives 11:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
10am departures from RDU are usually not late
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.