Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4205
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4205 · DFW → LCH
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 10:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 9%
Mon 11/2 13%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LCH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LCH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LCH?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
LCH usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LCH
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LCH (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.