Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4221 · CLT → SRQ
departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 5:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 31%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SRQ that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.