Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4310
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4310 · MIA → ORF
departs 4:42 PM ET · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.