Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 9866 · DFW → SGF
departs 6:52 AM CT · arrives 8:17 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SGF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.