Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 128 · TPA → ORF
departs 8:57 PM ET · arrives 11:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.