Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 128 · TPA → ORF
departs 8:43 PM ET · arrives 10:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.