Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5039 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

OH 5039 · GRR → DCA

departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 3:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5039 · GRR → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?