Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5053 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

OH 5053 · DCA → AVL

departs 9:57 AM ET · arrives 11:47 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ AVL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AVL (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5053 · DCA → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?