Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5078 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

OH 5078 · DCA → TLH

departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 10:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TLH?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ TLH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TLH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5078 · DCA → TLH

Odds over time

How late will it get to TLH?