Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5236 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

OH 5236 · DCA → HPN

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HPN?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HPN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5236 · DCA → HPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to HPN?