Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5289 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

OH 5289 · DCA → HPN

departs 10:05 PM ET · arrives 11:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HPN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

HPN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5289 · DCA → HPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to HPN?