Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5351 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

OH 5351 · ROC → DCA

departs 5:33 AM ET · arrives 6:59 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from ROC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5351 · ROC → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?