Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5436 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

OH 5436 · TYS → DCA

departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 7:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5436 · TYS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?