Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5497 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

OH 5497 · DCA → TUL

departs 1:50 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5497 · DCA → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?