Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5626 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

OH 5626 · RDU → DCA

departs 1:55 PM ET · arrives 3:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Visibility down to 0.9 mi forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5626 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?