OO 3057 · SNA → STS

departs 4:04 PM PT · arrives 5:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STS?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from SNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3057 · SNA → STS

Odds over time

How late will it get to STS?