Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 3783 · IAD → MSP
departs 6:46 PM ET · arrives 8:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 24%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.