Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 3863 · MSP → FSD
departs 8:57 AM CT · arrives 10:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
FSD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.