OO 3886 · MSP → SBN

departs 8:37 PM CT · arrives 11:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3886 · MSP → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?