Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 3996 · IAD → MSP
departs 7:18 AM ET · arrives 9:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.