Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4236
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 4236 · MSP → HIB
departs 1:05 PM CT · arrives 2:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HIB more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HIB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at HIB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HIB?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HIB
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
HIB (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.