Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4242
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 4242 · MSP → CIU
departs 1:05 PM CT · arrives 3:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CIU more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CIU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CIU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CIU?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at CIU that day
↑
Other factors
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
CIU (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.