OO 4653 · BFL → SFO

departs 4:22 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BFL

Weather at each end

BFL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9.71429 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4653 · BFL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?