Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4653 · BFL → SFO
departs 4:18 PM PT · arrives 5:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29 29%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BFL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BFL
Weather at each end
BFL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.