Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
OO 4781 · ORD → SBN
departs 9:37 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.