Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4781 · ORD → SBN
departs 9:38 PM CT · arrives 11:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.