Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 4781 · ORD → SBN
departs 9:40 PM CT · arrives 11:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.