OO 5251 · DCA → ORD

departs 8:07 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5251 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?