Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
OO 5263 · SBA → SFO
departs 6:29 PM PT · arrives 7:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.