Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 5263 · SBA → SFO
departs 6:38 PM PT · arrives 7:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/30
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±7 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
SBA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.