OO 6205 · PHX → TUS

departs 5:06 PM MT · arrives 6:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6205 · PHX → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?